Here are some interesting numbers for you to contemplate if you own a home or are considering owning a home. These come to me from a subscription to Trends, compiled by Mr. Don Pickett. He describes the numbers as ballpark however they ring pretty true by my reckoning.
First off let me say that the ownership of real property as an investment has traditionally been built around the principle of equity. You establish equity in two ways. 1) You pay down your mortgage. 2) You hope that your property increases in value over time or appreciates.
Following are numbers reflecting the principle of appreciation over the last 10 years. You will note that the numbers will reflect a % of the year increase in value over the previous year and the average price of a typical home in Leon County in that year.
YEAR............... % CHANGE...................... AVERAGE PRICE
1999...................... 3%
2000...................... 6
2001.......................8........................... $153,664
2002...................... 4............................. 159,481
2003.................... 14............................. 181,191
2004.................... 12 .............................202,835
2005.................... 15 .............................233,826
2006...................... 8 .............................253,546
2007...................... 2............................. 257,874
2008.................... (6)............................ 242,603
2009 (thru Sep) (10.5)......................... 217,214
Once again, we see the application of the law of gravity. What goes up must surely come down. Look at the average price for a home in Leon County 2001 vs 2006. What you bought '01 was worth approximately $100k more 5 years down the road in 2006. What a run.
It has now changed. In my opinion it has changed forever.
Contact me on the web at http://elvass.com/
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Humility in a Waiting room
I worked for a pharmaceutical company for 30 years, 1972 to 2002. For pretty close to 20 years I carried a bag as a detail man. I called on physicians in their offices. Accessing physicians in 1972 was much less challenging than 2002. That is why I moved to the Public Affairs sector of the company as a Government Affairs Manager along the way. Anyway as you can imagine I spent a lot of time in physicians waiting rooms hoping for access to the prescriber. I facetiously used to tell people that I was a professional waiter.
I was waiting to see Dr. Rick Damron at what became Medical Group of North Florida. It was 1986 in October. The fall baseball classic was underway. It was right around 5:30 in the PM. I had been waiting about an hour. There was an old man sitting across from me so I struck up a conversation with him. He seemed old to me. I was 40 years of age back then.
The subject quickly turned to baseball. The Mets and the Red Sox were in the Series. The night before a Red Sox player, Bill Buckner, had allowed a ball to roll between his legs allowing the series to go to the 7th game. The Mets would ultimately win the Series. Buckner has been the subject of derision and vilification ever since that night. I was a Winthrop Park Little League head coach at that time. I was careful not to draw the old man too tightly into analyzing the elements of the previous night. He was out of his league. After all I was a head coach. What was he? I was soon to find out.
The old man had been sort of quiet as I shot my baseball accumen across the room to him. He was responsive and seemed to be interested in my observations. I could also tell that he has preoccupied with his wife being back in an exam room. As I continued to blather on, the door to the hallway aligning the exam rooms opens and out comes Dr. Damron.
I thought he was coming out to give me a couple of minutes to pitch my latest product. Instead he moved directly to the old man. This is what he said: " Mr. Barber, I read your column all the time. I have even listened to games you have broadcast back in my youth. Could you possibly give me your autograph for my father? He is a big fan."
Dr. Damron then headed back to the exam rooms. As he exited he turned to me and said,
" Sorry I can't see you today. I am running behind." I bid farewell to the old man and in a complete state of embarrassment I was happy to get out of that medical complex. I am not the quickest study on earth but it dawned on me finally who the old man was.
He was Red Barber. He was one of the most respected baseball minds in America. He had been the broadcaster for the New York Yankees for a little better than 10 years. He also did the same job for the Phillies and I think the Dodgers. He wrote a weekly column from right here in Tallahassee called From the Cat bird Seat. That column was syndicated and appeared weekly in major newspapers all over the country. Some 6-7 years later as I was working in my front yard an ESPN news crew stopped in front of my house, while I was doing some edging, and asked how to get to a particular address. I asked them where they were heading and they told me to Red Barber's house. Red Barber had just passed away.
I reflected back on my earlier experience with Mr. Barber. He had been so kind and patient with my infantile observations about the baseball game. Had I been in his shoes I would have curtly dismissed someone like myself. Imagine the restraint I would have had to have suppressed were I him speaking with someone like me. " Do you have any idea who I am? Do you think that I am intrested in your weak opinion about the World Series? Why I have been the play by play announcer in several World Series games."
I was humbled and he was a perfect example of humility. That lesson taught by example has stayed with me to this day.
I was waiting to see Dr. Rick Damron at what became Medical Group of North Florida. It was 1986 in October. The fall baseball classic was underway. It was right around 5:30 in the PM. I had been waiting about an hour. There was an old man sitting across from me so I struck up a conversation with him. He seemed old to me. I was 40 years of age back then.
The subject quickly turned to baseball. The Mets and the Red Sox were in the Series. The night before a Red Sox player, Bill Buckner, had allowed a ball to roll between his legs allowing the series to go to the 7th game. The Mets would ultimately win the Series. Buckner has been the subject of derision and vilification ever since that night. I was a Winthrop Park Little League head coach at that time. I was careful not to draw the old man too tightly into analyzing the elements of the previous night. He was out of his league. After all I was a head coach. What was he? I was soon to find out.
The old man had been sort of quiet as I shot my baseball accumen across the room to him. He was responsive and seemed to be interested in my observations. I could also tell that he has preoccupied with his wife being back in an exam room. As I continued to blather on, the door to the hallway aligning the exam rooms opens and out comes Dr. Damron.
I thought he was coming out to give me a couple of minutes to pitch my latest product. Instead he moved directly to the old man. This is what he said: " Mr. Barber, I read your column all the time. I have even listened to games you have broadcast back in my youth. Could you possibly give me your autograph for my father? He is a big fan."
Dr. Damron then headed back to the exam rooms. As he exited he turned to me and said,
" Sorry I can't see you today. I am running behind." I bid farewell to the old man and in a complete state of embarrassment I was happy to get out of that medical complex. I am not the quickest study on earth but it dawned on me finally who the old man was.
He was Red Barber. He was one of the most respected baseball minds in America. He had been the broadcaster for the New York Yankees for a little better than 10 years. He also did the same job for the Phillies and I think the Dodgers. He wrote a weekly column from right here in Tallahassee called From the Cat bird Seat. That column was syndicated and appeared weekly in major newspapers all over the country. Some 6-7 years later as I was working in my front yard an ESPN news crew stopped in front of my house, while I was doing some edging, and asked how to get to a particular address. I asked them where they were heading and they told me to Red Barber's house. Red Barber had just passed away.
I reflected back on my earlier experience with Mr. Barber. He had been so kind and patient with my infantile observations about the baseball game. Had I been in his shoes I would have curtly dismissed someone like myself. Imagine the restraint I would have had to have suppressed were I him speaking with someone like me. " Do you have any idea who I am? Do you think that I am intrested in your weak opinion about the World Series? Why I have been the play by play announcer in several World Series games."
I was humbled and he was a perfect example of humility. That lesson taught by example has stayed with me to this day.
Friday, October 2, 2009
One In Four
Do me a favor. Go outside and stand across the street from your home. Weather is nice should not be too strenuous. Now look at your house and the three other ones adjacent to yours. Got that picture? OK, now think about this. One of those three neighbors next to you is a financially distressed property. They are in some phase of Lis Pendens. They are headed to foreclosure. Perhaps you, yourself are one of them. Takeaway message is that there are a lot of people hurting out there.
Statistics are that 1 in 4 are in trouble. They have somewhere in their past had a mortgage broker or banking official sign them up for an interest only loan, an adjustable rate mortgage or refinanced them at 125% loan to value (ltv). Your house was worth $200,000. Some mortgage company, perhaps by e-mail, said to you we are going to refinance you at 125% LTV. Going to give you a great rate and send you a $50k check to do with whatever you want. It just sounded too good to pass up. You did it and now the value of your house has eroded to $125k. You owe $250k on a house worth half that much. What are you going to do? You cannot refinance. You have no equity. You cannot sell it because people can buy houses all around you for $100 to 150k.
Now throw in the loss of a job. You put in a call to your lender. What can we do? Can we sell it short? Well we will assign a mitigator of some kind to your case and see what shakes out. In the mean time send us all your recent bank statements, three years of tax returns and find a Realtor who will work for 1% because no way are we, the bank, paying them the going rate for commission. And, oh by the way, whatever loss we take on the sale of your house you are going to sign a note for at 12% interest.
Now put yourself on the other side of this scenario. You are a buyer. You have a little money and a decent job and credit rating. You may even have a loan commitment letter from the lender. You are licking your chops to go buy a foreclosed property and/or a short sale. You find one. You have a Realtor who has asked you to sign an agreement that you will pay thier side of the commission when and if the bank refuses to pay them. You find a property you love. You sign a contract offer and your Realtor delivers it to the Sellers agent who in turn delivers it to the lender. Then the dance begins. The other Realtor puts in a call to the lender asking them to consider the offer. 1-2-3-4-5-6 weeks go by the lender has not returned anyone's call. Why? Because they are inundated with similar requests. Oh they have also cut their staff to the bone. You forgot that the recession was all across the board. Six weeks has turned into 6 months. You have tired of the dance, however, you signed a legitimate contract that binds you to the will of the lender.
Short sale turns into Long-Long sale. It is most likely going to cost you extra money because, guess what, the bank ain't gonna repair ANYTHING. Your Realtor gets out of the business because all they are doing is spending money driving you around, paying MLS fees and all the other operational costs. The bank is probably going to refuse to pay them their commission anyway. They have to find a job waiting tables, driving a cab, something that can provide them some cash flow. So you are left on your own trying to figure out this nightmare you have started.
Choose your battles wisely. Affiliate with a Realtor who has the experience and staying power you need. These are troubled times we operate in. Is it going to get better soon? Who knows that it is not going to get worse? The Feds cannot bail us out ad infinitim. You might want to reconsider chasing the foreclosure or short sale. There is a lot of risk associated with the bulk of them.
Visit me on the web at http://elvass.com
Statistics are that 1 in 4 are in trouble. They have somewhere in their past had a mortgage broker or banking official sign them up for an interest only loan, an adjustable rate mortgage or refinanced them at 125% loan to value (ltv). Your house was worth $200,000. Some mortgage company, perhaps by e-mail, said to you we are going to refinance you at 125% LTV. Going to give you a great rate and send you a $50k check to do with whatever you want. It just sounded too good to pass up. You did it and now the value of your house has eroded to $125k. You owe $250k on a house worth half that much. What are you going to do? You cannot refinance. You have no equity. You cannot sell it because people can buy houses all around you for $100 to 150k.
Now throw in the loss of a job. You put in a call to your lender. What can we do? Can we sell it short? Well we will assign a mitigator of some kind to your case and see what shakes out. In the mean time send us all your recent bank statements, three years of tax returns and find a Realtor who will work for 1% because no way are we, the bank, paying them the going rate for commission. And, oh by the way, whatever loss we take on the sale of your house you are going to sign a note for at 12% interest.
Now put yourself on the other side of this scenario. You are a buyer. You have a little money and a decent job and credit rating. You may even have a loan commitment letter from the lender. You are licking your chops to go buy a foreclosed property and/or a short sale. You find one. You have a Realtor who has asked you to sign an agreement that you will pay thier side of the commission when and if the bank refuses to pay them. You find a property you love. You sign a contract offer and your Realtor delivers it to the Sellers agent who in turn delivers it to the lender. Then the dance begins. The other Realtor puts in a call to the lender asking them to consider the offer. 1-2-3-4-5-6 weeks go by the lender has not returned anyone's call. Why? Because they are inundated with similar requests. Oh they have also cut their staff to the bone. You forgot that the recession was all across the board. Six weeks has turned into 6 months. You have tired of the dance, however, you signed a legitimate contract that binds you to the will of the lender.
Short sale turns into Long-Long sale. It is most likely going to cost you extra money because, guess what, the bank ain't gonna repair ANYTHING. Your Realtor gets out of the business because all they are doing is spending money driving you around, paying MLS fees and all the other operational costs. The bank is probably going to refuse to pay them their commission anyway. They have to find a job waiting tables, driving a cab, something that can provide them some cash flow. So you are left on your own trying to figure out this nightmare you have started.
Choose your battles wisely. Affiliate with a Realtor who has the experience and staying power you need. These are troubled times we operate in. Is it going to get better soon? Who knows that it is not going to get worse? The Feds cannot bail us out ad infinitim. You might want to reconsider chasing the foreclosure or short sale. There is a lot of risk associated with the bulk of them.
Visit me on the web at http://elvass.com
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Where were you?
I remember where I was when President Kennedy was shot, so do you. I remember where I was when Bobby Kennedy was shot, so do you. I remember where I was when Dr. King was shot. I will always remember the day I watched Neil Armstrong take that first step on the lunar landscape. You have to be a mature American to recall all those events.
You can be a child as young as 12 and remember the most significant event since the shot heard around the world that was fired at Ft. Sumter, South Carolina somewhere around 1861. That event was September 11, 2001. The Ft. Sumter event was the impetus that led to the most blood ever spilled here in America since the Revolutionary war.
When those planes flew into the World Trade Center and our Pentagon approximately 3,000 innocent Americans shed their blood, innocent, collateral damage in a cowardly act of terrorism. Since then one of the most evil dictators in history was captured, tried and hanged. Our soldiers still are taking it to the terrorists and those who have harbored terror. Many additional lives have been lost in an effort to make you and I feel safe once again.
I was in Baton Rouge, La. with DuPont. I had flown in on 9/10. Myself and 2 colleagues were doing software training for 2 cardiology groups assembled at the Baton Rouge Hilton. I had been to breakfast and had read a little article in USA Today about the establishment of 911 as the emergency number for the nation. Some sort of commemoration was scheduled somewhere on 9/11 to apply a little numerology. When I left my room to go down to the meeting room my colleague, Roger, came out of his room with a funny look on his face and announced that an airliner had just flown into the World trade center. I thought back about the article I had read and I said " No that is just some sort of gimmick to promote the establishment of 911 as the nationwide emergency number." Boy was I ever wrong.
We went to the meeting room checked in with our management and called off the training and went to pack. I was fortunate enough to think about getting a rental car. I had National Car Rental on speed dial. After I speed dialed it about 10 times I was able to successfully reserve a car. By the time my colleague from Birmingham, who had driven down, got us to the airport all airports across the country had been closed. Air Force One was heading to Louisiana, where I was. I had a guy at the rental car desk offer me $1000.00 for my rental car. He was trying to get home to Los Angeles. My other colleague and I drove the 8 hours back to Tallahassee and then he went on to Sarasota. We were scared. I just wanted to be home with my family.
I remember my daughter stood in line in Gainesville at the University of Florida, along with her room mates, to donate blood. People went to church in droves. Retailers sold out of flags. The mood of the country was anger towards the terrorists.
Where are we now? Blood donations have become a way to buy dinner for some. People stopped going to church in droves. Republicans hate the Democrats. Democrats hate the Republicans. Everyone hates the war. Tea parties abound. GM's principal owner is the U.S. Government. Financial institutions are owned by the government. The government wants to own health care.
What scared us to death back on 9/11/01 is now just a bare memory. If you fly into New York City there are new structures going up to replace those twin towers. It is hard to remember what they looked like in our mind's eye.
The same resolute planning that effected 9/11/01 is still going on in some Al Queda camp somewhere. Death to America still motivates people to strap bombs on thier children and send them into a crowd.
I wonder when and what the next 9/11 will be. Sure makes you pause and reflect doesn't it.
You can be a child as young as 12 and remember the most significant event since the shot heard around the world that was fired at Ft. Sumter, South Carolina somewhere around 1861. That event was September 11, 2001. The Ft. Sumter event was the impetus that led to the most blood ever spilled here in America since the Revolutionary war.
When those planes flew into the World Trade Center and our Pentagon approximately 3,000 innocent Americans shed their blood, innocent, collateral damage in a cowardly act of terrorism. Since then one of the most evil dictators in history was captured, tried and hanged. Our soldiers still are taking it to the terrorists and those who have harbored terror. Many additional lives have been lost in an effort to make you and I feel safe once again.
I was in Baton Rouge, La. with DuPont. I had flown in on 9/10. Myself and 2 colleagues were doing software training for 2 cardiology groups assembled at the Baton Rouge Hilton. I had been to breakfast and had read a little article in USA Today about the establishment of 911 as the emergency number for the nation. Some sort of commemoration was scheduled somewhere on 9/11 to apply a little numerology. When I left my room to go down to the meeting room my colleague, Roger, came out of his room with a funny look on his face and announced that an airliner had just flown into the World trade center. I thought back about the article I had read and I said " No that is just some sort of gimmick to promote the establishment of 911 as the nationwide emergency number." Boy was I ever wrong.
We went to the meeting room checked in with our management and called off the training and went to pack. I was fortunate enough to think about getting a rental car. I had National Car Rental on speed dial. After I speed dialed it about 10 times I was able to successfully reserve a car. By the time my colleague from Birmingham, who had driven down, got us to the airport all airports across the country had been closed. Air Force One was heading to Louisiana, where I was. I had a guy at the rental car desk offer me $1000.00 for my rental car. He was trying to get home to Los Angeles. My other colleague and I drove the 8 hours back to Tallahassee and then he went on to Sarasota. We were scared. I just wanted to be home with my family.
I remember my daughter stood in line in Gainesville at the University of Florida, along with her room mates, to donate blood. People went to church in droves. Retailers sold out of flags. The mood of the country was anger towards the terrorists.
Where are we now? Blood donations have become a way to buy dinner for some. People stopped going to church in droves. Republicans hate the Democrats. Democrats hate the Republicans. Everyone hates the war. Tea parties abound. GM's principal owner is the U.S. Government. Financial institutions are owned by the government. The government wants to own health care.
What scared us to death back on 9/11/01 is now just a bare memory. If you fly into New York City there are new structures going up to replace those twin towers. It is hard to remember what they looked like in our mind's eye.
The same resolute planning that effected 9/11/01 is still going on in some Al Queda camp somewhere. Death to America still motivates people to strap bombs on thier children and send them into a crowd.
I wonder when and what the next 9/11 will be. Sure makes you pause and reflect doesn't it.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Coaching, the key to success
I have been thinking about the importance of coaches in our lives. I have occupied the role of coach off and on over my 63 years of life more than once. I have been the coach and I have been the recipient of coaching. I suppose that successful parents, teachers, legislators, executives, sales people, the list goes on exponentially, all have elements of coaching within them.
A member of the media once asked the legendary coach, Paul ' Bear' Bryant what made him such a great coach. The Bear answered back simply " Great players." I am not so sure that is the fact. There is just no doubt that it takes a special gift to be able to get the best out of people.
I remember a great baseball player named Jim Abbott. He was a gold medal winning, Olympian baseball pitcher. The fact that he only had one arm was of special note to the media and to anyone who watched him pitch. Not to him. I remember reading an article about him in Sports Illustrated many years ago. The one thing that stands out in my memory is the tribute he paid to his parents. They instilled in him a belief that he could do anything he wanted to. He went on to play in the Major leagues and was a notable contributor to his team.
What is it that makes us believe in ourselves? That is the essence of coaching. To make someone believe that they can do something special. Why would anyone be worth $4 million dollars a year to coach. Yet we have two great examples of that moving into the 2009/10 collegiate football season. Coach Meyer at University of Florida and Coach Saban at University of Alabama both command those sorts of salaries. Why? Because they have proven that they can make young men believe that they can win.
Let's face it, not many of us have the talent to golf like Tiger Woods, hit a baseball like Chipper Jones, pull down a rebound like Charles Barkley, lead a winning football team like Tim Tebow, serve a tennis ball like Roger Federer. These are flesh and blood human beings who are comprised of the same elements you and I are. Now I wonder how well Tiger Woods could hit a 90 mph fastball? We all know how well Charles Barkley plays golf. Betcha Chipper and Tebow would not get far in the U S Open in tennis. Federer would most likely fail at executing a high powered offense in football. Yet in their own element they have the mindset and belief that they can win.
I remember a scene in Return of the Jedi. The little lizard like Jedi Master, Yoda, used the force to raise the X-Wing fighter out of the swamp of Degobah and set it on dry land. Luke Skywalker had tried to do the same thing a few minutes before. As he watched Yoda do what he could not he exclaimed, " I don't believe it ! " Yoda retorted, " That, is why you failed."
My son was a pretty good little baseball player. I coached him from the time he could walk. I coached him 'til he was 14. I then turned him over to Coach Bill Lord. He went from being about a 5 or 6 on the baseball player index to an 8 or 9, almost immediately. He went on to play shortstop at Lincoln HS. He made All Stars in every league he ever played in. Of 50 + walk on attempts at Tallahassee Community College my son was the only one who Coach McLeod kept. Coach Bill Lord made my son believe that he was better than I ever could. That same man coached me when I entered the Real Estate business. He made me believe that I could do it. I have done it. I have been successful in real estate sales.
Realtors are coaches. They take sellers or buyers and help them put forth the best elements of their real estate offerings or desires. They think Win-Win. They teach begin with the end in mind. They teach others to put first things first. They help people synergize the elements they possess to buy or sell. They seek first to understand and then to be understood. They set an example of proactivity. Then, throughout their careers they sharpen the saw. Those are the Seven habits of highly effective people. That book stays on the table beside my bed. I read it and the scriptures regularly.
Do not go into the game of selling or buying real estate without the coach. You will win if you do. You will lose if you don't.
Please visit me on the web at http://elvass.com/.
A member of the media once asked the legendary coach, Paul ' Bear' Bryant what made him such a great coach. The Bear answered back simply " Great players." I am not so sure that is the fact. There is just no doubt that it takes a special gift to be able to get the best out of people.
I remember a great baseball player named Jim Abbott. He was a gold medal winning, Olympian baseball pitcher. The fact that he only had one arm was of special note to the media and to anyone who watched him pitch. Not to him. I remember reading an article about him in Sports Illustrated many years ago. The one thing that stands out in my memory is the tribute he paid to his parents. They instilled in him a belief that he could do anything he wanted to. He went on to play in the Major leagues and was a notable contributor to his team.
What is it that makes us believe in ourselves? That is the essence of coaching. To make someone believe that they can do something special. Why would anyone be worth $4 million dollars a year to coach. Yet we have two great examples of that moving into the 2009/10 collegiate football season. Coach Meyer at University of Florida and Coach Saban at University of Alabama both command those sorts of salaries. Why? Because they have proven that they can make young men believe that they can win.
Let's face it, not many of us have the talent to golf like Tiger Woods, hit a baseball like Chipper Jones, pull down a rebound like Charles Barkley, lead a winning football team like Tim Tebow, serve a tennis ball like Roger Federer. These are flesh and blood human beings who are comprised of the same elements you and I are. Now I wonder how well Tiger Woods could hit a 90 mph fastball? We all know how well Charles Barkley plays golf. Betcha Chipper and Tebow would not get far in the U S Open in tennis. Federer would most likely fail at executing a high powered offense in football. Yet in their own element they have the mindset and belief that they can win.
I remember a scene in Return of the Jedi. The little lizard like Jedi Master, Yoda, used the force to raise the X-Wing fighter out of the swamp of Degobah and set it on dry land. Luke Skywalker had tried to do the same thing a few minutes before. As he watched Yoda do what he could not he exclaimed, " I don't believe it ! " Yoda retorted, " That, is why you failed."
My son was a pretty good little baseball player. I coached him from the time he could walk. I coached him 'til he was 14. I then turned him over to Coach Bill Lord. He went from being about a 5 or 6 on the baseball player index to an 8 or 9, almost immediately. He went on to play shortstop at Lincoln HS. He made All Stars in every league he ever played in. Of 50 + walk on attempts at Tallahassee Community College my son was the only one who Coach McLeod kept. Coach Bill Lord made my son believe that he was better than I ever could. That same man coached me when I entered the Real Estate business. He made me believe that I could do it. I have done it. I have been successful in real estate sales.
Realtors are coaches. They take sellers or buyers and help them put forth the best elements of their real estate offerings or desires. They think Win-Win. They teach begin with the end in mind. They teach others to put first things first. They help people synergize the elements they possess to buy or sell. They seek first to understand and then to be understood. They set an example of proactivity. Then, throughout their careers they sharpen the saw. Those are the Seven habits of highly effective people. That book stays on the table beside my bed. I read it and the scriptures regularly.
Do not go into the game of selling or buying real estate without the coach. You will win if you do. You will lose if you don't.
Please visit me on the web at http://elvass.com/.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Renting........the wave of the future???
I have noted since I have been in this business that statistics suggest that 60% of Californians rent. Noticed this Associated Press article this morning and I am posting it to my BLOG. I am of the personal opinion that the hay days of home ownership are fading away. It happened so quickly that we are all still sitting here scratching our heads.
My opinion only and worth about what you are paying for it.
Lee
Associated Press
August 6, 2009
The rate of homeownership is forecast to keep tumbling in the next decade to lows not seen since the 1980s, a trend that could redefine a key element of the American dream even after the housing market recovers.
The percentage of households that own homes hit a peak of almost 70% in 2004 and 2005. By the second quarter of this year, that slipped to 67.4%, according to the Census Bureau. Now, a University of Utah analysis projects it'll drop to about 63.5% by 2020 — the lowest since 1985.
"It will fall steadily by about half a point per year," says Arthur C. Nelson, director of the university's Metropolitan Research Center. "We'll have far more renters in the future."
Homeownership has long been viewed a key to building stable communities and middle-class families. Federal policy encouraged it with tax credits and government-backed mortgages. Now, demographic changes, strict mortgage rules, energy-saving policies and lessons learned in this housing crisis are driving more people to rent.
About 57% of the 30.3 million housing units added from 2005 to 2020 will be rentals, Nelson says. "So many of our federal and state and local policies are driven by the assumption that homeownership is inherently preferred over renting," he says. The housing collapse may have an impact.
"We're returning more to what was normal in the 1960s," says Dowell Myers, housing demographer at the University of Southern California. "People didn't buy homes then as an investment. They bought them to raise families."
Renting also may be more appealing because:
• Households are smaller. The youngest of 79 million Baby Boomers will turn 56 by 2020 and many will be empty nesters who favor small homes. The 20-something millennial generation is at a peak age for renting."What we used to think of as the typical American family — married couple with children — is really not typical anymore," says Mark Obrinsky, chief economist for the National Multi Housing Council in Washington, D.C.
•It's tougher to buy. The subprime mortgage crisis is tightening credit availability.
•Some arenew to the USA. Most recent immigrants rent.
•Somewant to save energy. From tax credits to mass transit, going green is reshaping growth.
Homeownership is not inherently good or bad, Obrinsky says. "Let's give people the best set of housing choices. They want to be a renter, let them be a renter. If they want to be an owner and they can afford to be, let them be an owner."
My opinion only and worth about what you are paying for it.
Lee
Associated Press
August 6, 2009
The rate of homeownership is forecast to keep tumbling in the next decade to lows not seen since the 1980s, a trend that could redefine a key element of the American dream even after the housing market recovers.
The percentage of households that own homes hit a peak of almost 70% in 2004 and 2005. By the second quarter of this year, that slipped to 67.4%, according to the Census Bureau. Now, a University of Utah analysis projects it'll drop to about 63.5% by 2020 — the lowest since 1985.
"It will fall steadily by about half a point per year," says Arthur C. Nelson, director of the university's Metropolitan Research Center. "We'll have far more renters in the future."
Homeownership has long been viewed a key to building stable communities and middle-class families. Federal policy encouraged it with tax credits and government-backed mortgages. Now, demographic changes, strict mortgage rules, energy-saving policies and lessons learned in this housing crisis are driving more people to rent.
About 57% of the 30.3 million housing units added from 2005 to 2020 will be rentals, Nelson says. "So many of our federal and state and local policies are driven by the assumption that homeownership is inherently preferred over renting," he says. The housing collapse may have an impact.
"We're returning more to what was normal in the 1960s," says Dowell Myers, housing demographer at the University of Southern California. "People didn't buy homes then as an investment. They bought them to raise families."
Renting also may be more appealing because:
• Households are smaller. The youngest of 79 million Baby Boomers will turn 56 by 2020 and many will be empty nesters who favor small homes. The 20-something millennial generation is at a peak age for renting."What we used to think of as the typical American family — married couple with children — is really not typical anymore," says Mark Obrinsky, chief economist for the National Multi Housing Council in Washington, D.C.
•It's tougher to buy. The subprime mortgage crisis is tightening credit availability.
•Some arenew to the USA. Most recent immigrants rent.
•Somewant to save energy. From tax credits to mass transit, going green is reshaping growth.
Homeownership is not inherently good or bad, Obrinsky says. "Let's give people the best set of housing choices. They want to be a renter, let them be a renter. If they want to be an owner and they can afford to be, let them be an owner."
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Reflections on justice
I have had a strange week. In the midst of the week I received a call from a representative of a Home Owners Association here in Tallahassee. The essence of his rant was that I could potentially be named in a law suit. What ??? That sort of pronouncement gets my attention. The essence of his fervor was that a home owner who had bought a listing from a seller I represented was taking down trees. I, of course, wanted to know what that had to do with me.
His psychotic response was that the fellow had declared that I had not provided him with a copy of the covenants and restrictions surrounding this association. Thusly he had failed to seek the permission of the Homes Association. I informed him that I had provided that information to his agent and that it was the fiduciary responsibility of his agent to provide the C&R to him. I then terminated the discussion electing to make a donation to NAMI ( the National Association of Mental Illness ) rather than donating my time directly to him, a compelling representative of the cause.
I concluded my week by answering a summons to jury duty. It is not a good idea to ignore such. It is always a time consuming and mildly frustrating investiture of time. I was in a pool of approximately 200. My name was called to go to a particular court room and I was invited into a jury box. There were approximately 20-25 of us in the box. That number would be winnowed down to 6 to hear a particular case.
The judge presiding over this case was Circuit Court judge Kevin Davey. He used to live right across the corner of the golf course from me. I have always held a huge amount of admiration and respect for this man and his family. His daughter, Erica, played softball for me at the age of 9. She passed away about 13 years ago from osteomyeloma. I can still see in my mind's eye the look of determination on her steely little face as she played softball. She played with absolute pain in every movement. Yet she ran and squealed and laughed and had a wonderful time as 9 year olds are supposed to do. She looms in my mind as a great example of what it takes to be a champion. She never seemed to give up in the face of long, long odds. Her family took every step with her and they set a wonderful example of support. She is gone on to laugh and play with the angels in heaven. The family is left behind to deal with this onerous world that we continue on in. Where is the justice in that? Yet, this man continues to stand watch over the process of justice.
Well, I digress. The court was Civil Court. There sitting in the defendant's chair was another real estate broker, a very successful one. In the plaintiff's chair was a builder, developer of numerous subdivisions in north Florida. The charge was that the broker had acted with malfeasance in his fiduciary responsibility with the handling of escrow funds. I will not know how the verdict comes out on this. The trial begins on Monday I was fortunate enough to be dismissed as a potential juror. I was happy for that fact.
These two brushes with the wheels of justice this week caused me to reflect. The system is in place in this free country of ours to deal with malfeasance. Those of us who feel taken advantage of can utilize this system of justice that has evolved within our nation. As we have watched the Senate hearings surrounding the Sotomeyor appointment to the Supreme court we should be focused on the extraordinary effort we take to maintain this system. We may seek redress via the court system regardless of our status or station in life. If you are a homeless person who gets run over by a gorilla pushing a shopping cart at Target and suffer bodily harm, trust me, there is an armada of barristers of the law standing in place to help you seek damages. This tort system of ours is what it is. The courts are jammed with silly, frivolous law suits. Many claims get settled before they ever get into court. But we would rather have too much law than not enough.
As a licensed practitioner I am held to standards of performance. I can mis-step along a huge gauntlet of law and regulation, ethics and competency. Many, many eyes watch what I do. If I fail to perform then I deserve to be challenged. Liability looms large. That is why I carry errors and ommissions insurance. To be without is like driving around without auto coverage.
I am currently reading The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Edward Gibbons. At the outset of the book the author points out that Rome evolved to dominate the world in the first century because of the system of law and government that they had in place. I am assuming that Rome fell largely because that system eroded away at some point in time. They ultimately became a conquered and fallen nation.
Remember: " One nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all." We should give all we have to preserve it.
His psychotic response was that the fellow had declared that I had not provided him with a copy of the covenants and restrictions surrounding this association. Thusly he had failed to seek the permission of the Homes Association. I informed him that I had provided that information to his agent and that it was the fiduciary responsibility of his agent to provide the C&R to him. I then terminated the discussion electing to make a donation to NAMI ( the National Association of Mental Illness ) rather than donating my time directly to him, a compelling representative of the cause.
I concluded my week by answering a summons to jury duty. It is not a good idea to ignore such. It is always a time consuming and mildly frustrating investiture of time. I was in a pool of approximately 200. My name was called to go to a particular court room and I was invited into a jury box. There were approximately 20-25 of us in the box. That number would be winnowed down to 6 to hear a particular case.
The judge presiding over this case was Circuit Court judge Kevin Davey. He used to live right across the corner of the golf course from me. I have always held a huge amount of admiration and respect for this man and his family. His daughter, Erica, played softball for me at the age of 9. She passed away about 13 years ago from osteomyeloma. I can still see in my mind's eye the look of determination on her steely little face as she played softball. She played with absolute pain in every movement. Yet she ran and squealed and laughed and had a wonderful time as 9 year olds are supposed to do. She looms in my mind as a great example of what it takes to be a champion. She never seemed to give up in the face of long, long odds. Her family took every step with her and they set a wonderful example of support. She is gone on to laugh and play with the angels in heaven. The family is left behind to deal with this onerous world that we continue on in. Where is the justice in that? Yet, this man continues to stand watch over the process of justice.
Well, I digress. The court was Civil Court. There sitting in the defendant's chair was another real estate broker, a very successful one. In the plaintiff's chair was a builder, developer of numerous subdivisions in north Florida. The charge was that the broker had acted with malfeasance in his fiduciary responsibility with the handling of escrow funds. I will not know how the verdict comes out on this. The trial begins on Monday I was fortunate enough to be dismissed as a potential juror. I was happy for that fact.
These two brushes with the wheels of justice this week caused me to reflect. The system is in place in this free country of ours to deal with malfeasance. Those of us who feel taken advantage of can utilize this system of justice that has evolved within our nation. As we have watched the Senate hearings surrounding the Sotomeyor appointment to the Supreme court we should be focused on the extraordinary effort we take to maintain this system. We may seek redress via the court system regardless of our status or station in life. If you are a homeless person who gets run over by a gorilla pushing a shopping cart at Target and suffer bodily harm, trust me, there is an armada of barristers of the law standing in place to help you seek damages. This tort system of ours is what it is. The courts are jammed with silly, frivolous law suits. Many claims get settled before they ever get into court. But we would rather have too much law than not enough.
As a licensed practitioner I am held to standards of performance. I can mis-step along a huge gauntlet of law and regulation, ethics and competency. Many, many eyes watch what I do. If I fail to perform then I deserve to be challenged. Liability looms large. That is why I carry errors and ommissions insurance. To be without is like driving around without auto coverage.
I am currently reading The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Edward Gibbons. At the outset of the book the author points out that Rome evolved to dominate the world in the first century because of the system of law and government that they had in place. I am assuming that Rome fell largely because that system eroded away at some point in time. They ultimately became a conquered and fallen nation.
Remember: " One nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all." We should give all we have to preserve it.
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